Call it a ‘fluid’ forecast as the mercury rises across Iowa this week. More hot weather is on the way, especially as we head into the weekend. In the meantime, our warmth will aid the potential for severe thunderstorm development across portions of the Upper Midwest.

At this time, these are no significant threats for severe weather, but with a little bit of forcing, there is the potential for some scattered strong storms this week. For right now our focus is on Wednesday and Thursday. In the near-term this is the timeframe it appears Iowa will have a shot at some severe weather. I want to stress this threat is very low and we do not expect any widespread damaging outbreak at this time.

If enough instability can generate itself across portions of western Iowa on Wednesday or northern Iowa on Thursday, a severe storm or two cannot be ruled out. Primary threats would be strong damaging wind gusts and large hail. The threat of tornadoes is very low for this time period.

Overall the pattern is quickly shifting to a more traditional summer format. Often times, this includes little in the way of thunderstorm activity until early evening or the overnight hours. Nocturnal storms can be just as dangerous. Strong winds and hail can still develop, threatening life and property during hours that many are not paying attention to the changing weather conditions.

Although small, we will continue to monitor these potential threats and update the forecast as new information comes in.

We thought we would draw up an outlook today for our fans to the west of Iowa.  A very complex weather system has set up shop across several states.  Iowa is not one of them as a high pressure system should eliminate the threat of severe weather here.

Today’s threat primarily lies across portions of Nebraska, Kansas and Oklahoma.  This is where several frontal bondaries, as well as leftover outflow could all play a role in severe thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening.  Although an isolated tornado or two is possible, it appears the primary threat today will come in the form of strong, damaging winds.

The Storm Prediction Center is monitoring a number of scenarios which could play out.  They include development along a warm front in areas that manage to build enough instability.  There is also the threat of thunderstorms firing across several outflow boundaries that are left over from last night’s activity.

It’s a very general threat and not one that would pique the interest of a lot of storm chasers.  Even so, dangerous weather is still possible and on this Father’s Day we wanted to get the word out about today’s threat for anyone that may be spending the holiday outdoors.  Remember, whether in Iowa or not, you can always keep up to date with what we’re tracking by liking us on Facebook!

The headline tells it all. A very active weather pattern is setting up across the Upper Midwest for the next few days. This will mean a lot of heat, a lot of thunderstorms and potentially a lot of rain which could add to recent flooding concerns.

For now we’re going to focus on today. With the exception of a few scattered showers and thunderstorms today, much of Iowa should stay dry through the day and night. There could be some severe thunderstorm development either late this afternoon or early evening in portions of western Iowa and eastern Nebraska. There are some good dynamics in this region that could produce an isolated tornado or two, as well as large hail and strong damaging winds.

Overall the severe storms, if they develop, should stay relatively scattered through much of the evening, but as we move into the overnight hours that could change. We expect a low level jet to rear its ugly head into Iowa very late tonight, threatening to produce a nocturnal MCS. This complex of thunderstorms could produce some large hail and strong damaging winds. Another concern will be the potentially heavy rain that could come with it for areas of Iowa that have already seen several inches in recent weeks.

Again, all of this is relatively conditional so we will keep a close eye on any changes to the forecast. The severe weather and flooding threat will continue into the weekend, we’ll have more on that coming up later today.

It was certainly a long and trying day for a lot of people here in Iowa.  Rather than a powerful and independent supercell, northern Iowa saw a training pattern of supercells track across the same area one by one. 

The strongest of these supercells formed near the town of Belmond.  The one storm produced three tornadoes, the first of which was especially strong.  Thursday the National Weather Service in Des Moines traveled to inspect the damage left behind and determine the intensity of the tornadoes.  Their survey determined the first tornado was a high end EF-3 with winds of up to 155mph.

That tornado was not terribly wide and was fortunately on the ground for just 8 miles.  That was enough to cause extensive damage to both homes and businesses.

A second satellite tornado also touched down producing EF-0 damage with winds of about 60mph.  The third tornado then touched down near Latimer with winds reaching an estimated at 112mph producing EF-2 damage in its 4 mile path.

In all three cases, no deaths or injuries were reported.

To the east, more tornadoes were reported in western Illinois, the strongest of which produced EF-2 damage and 1 injury.  Overall a very busy and dangerous that ended well.  We storm chasers love to see these storms and study them, especially when they cause little if any damage and the warning time is enough to save lives.

Earlier today we urged our fans to spread the word about today’s serious threat for severe weather.  Before we get into details we want to thank EVERYONE who alerted their friends and family.  Damage was done but so far it appears serious injuries were avoided here in Iowa.

That doesn’t mean these storms were not dangerous.  Case in point, this photo from Robert Halliday of twin tornadoes west of Hampton.  Multiple tornadoes, funnel clouds, rotation and hail were reported across numerous counties in northeast Iowa.

I will say the outbreak was not as bad as we had feared.  One reason why was the setup was a little south of perfect, but still very good.  Also, there were no real “pick of the litter.”  In a situation of long track tornadoes, the storms often become independent and break away from any complex.  Even so, the line of storms that fired produce plenty of dangerous weather that did cause some significant damage, but thus far in Iowa, nothing widespread.  We take these days as very thankful ones because we got plenty to see with none of the tragic aftermath.

For those that did sustain damage, the cleanup begins before the next round of storms this weekend.  More on that tomorrow.

Forget the fine details, I simply cannot stress this enough, EVERYONE in the risk area above needs to be aware of the serious threat for not only severe weather, but widespread and catastrophic severe weather.  There is an exceptional risk for tornadoes across eastern Iowa and Illinois. Some of these tornadoes could be violent.  Widespread hail and damaging winds are also expected, eventually turning into a powerful Derecho likely east of Iowa tonight.  Anyone, ANYONE in even the slight risk area need to stay up to date for the VERY latest. 

This is a very explosive situation and tornadoes could drop from storms shortly after they first developed.  Make sure you have your alert systems ready and nearby.  And PLEASE make sure your friends and family are also aware, both at work and at home.  This setup is not about the forecast, it’s about preparation and awareness.  We STRONGLY urge you to spread the word to everyone you know!

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After a very rough week with the loss of our colleagues at Twistex in Oklahoma, we have taken our eye off the forecast a bit.  That’s to be expected and I think we are all ready to move on and get back into the swing of things so here we go…

A slight risk for severe weather exists across the Upper Midwest on Saturday.  This threat largely exists south and west of Iowa, but folks in Nebraska and Kansas should also take note.  Conditions look favorable for severe weather in this region.  At this time we expect initial storms to fire to our west in Nebraska where it appears the low will set up shop.  One concern for western and central Iowa is the warm front stretching east of the low.  That could serve as a focal point for severe thunderstorm development, any such storms would be capable of producing large hail, strong winds and a tornado or two. We’ll continue to monitor this threat as the storm gets closer.

The ongoing severe threat for the region on Sunday remains conditional at this time.  We will monitor that as well as what transpires on Saturday will have a big impact.  One other concern, depending on the track and placement of this storm’s attributes, is heavy rain.  This would be of special concern for the Iowa City/Coralville area where flood waters remain high while the Army Corps of Engineers try and bring the Coralville Lake’s level down.

We’ll monitor all these threats in the hours and days ahead and bring you updates as we get them. We’ll also share any chase plans we make over the next 72 hours.

We are hoping to return to a little bit of normal here at Iowa Storm Chasing, and there is no better way to do that than to once again focus on the forecast. We are looking at an approaching storm system that could impact parts of Iowa, especially areas west of Interstate 35, on Tuesday.

The storm system should drape a frontal boundary across portions of western Iowa that could trigger showers and thunderstorms. At this time the setup for this event appears pretty weak. Depending on the conditions which set up Tuesday afternoon, we could see some modest instability in the area capable of triggering some strong to severe thunderstorms.

At this time the threat appears to be isolated and we do not plan on chasing these storms. The primary threat of any storms that do reach severe limits is large hail. The risk for tornadoes appears very remote. A greater threat of severe weather will exist across portions of western Oklahoma and southern Kansas.

Also, the threat of additional heavy rains capable of adding to area flooding concerns is also low, which is very good news for areas that are trying to get the worst of the flooding behind them. Overall this is a very minimal threat that should serve as more of a nuisance than a widespread threat.