The Storm Prediction Center has gone ahead an issued its 2000z update a little early and there’s good reason or that… they didn’t have to change much. Things are still on track and the thinking has not changed from a few hours ago. Explosive thunderstorm development is expected across portions of SW Minnesota, NW Iowa, eastern Nebraska and central Kansas. This is the area where a cold front is expected to serve as a focal point for development later this afternoon.
There is a chance that storms will be unable to fire during the afternoon hours. If that happens, the threat isn’t over. Storms are expected to persist for much of the evening and overnight hours over the risk area.
As we said before, the best chance for tornadoes will come in the first three hours of thunderstorm development, but again, the primary threats will come in the form of very large hail and strong, damaging straight line winds.
We are monitoring today’s potential and will continue to post updates throughout the afternoon. Couple of notes, if you know anyone who is out enjoying the holiday weekend, I would advise you to make sure they are also aware of the severe weather dangers if they are in the area currently under a slight or moderate risk. Also, if you have any photos – you can always submit them to firstname.lastname@example.org