Well here we go. A troubling trend in the forecast models begins with the threat of severe thunderstorm development later today. A slight risk for severe weather has been posted over a large area of the Upper Midwest. This is just the first round of money over the next two weeks that could not only bring the potential of severe weather, but also the threat of very heavy rainfall capable of producing flooding in some areas.
For now we’ll have to focus on the severe threat. A warm front is expected to rise up from the south, across Iowa on Tuesday, bringing warm and muggy air behind it. As that happens, a cold front will drape itself over portions of the Dakotas, western Minnesota and eastern Nebraska. Both of these areas are expected to be focal points for severe thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening hours on Tuesday.
Take a look at the graphic to the right, it shows a low-end risk for tornadoes across the slight risk area. At this time, it appears strong winds and large hail are the primary threats with any supercells that develop. Tornadoes could not be ruled out, but the better chance will exist in areas of central Minnesota, where the advancing warm front could set up shop by the time thunderstorms develop.
There is also some uncertainty with how long this threat will last into the evening hours. This is something that will have to be monitored. Storm chase teams are preparing to go after this threat and we’ll have more information about our plans tomorrow morning. For now be sure to check back throughout the day on Tuesday and Wednesday as we track our upcoming threats for severe weather.