The models have begun to come into good agreement over the threat expected for the Upper Midwest on Tuesday. A storm system, centered in the Dakotas will produce severe thunderstorm development that afternoon. The graphic above gives you an idea where a slight risk is posted for areas of Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, the Dakotas, Nebraska and Kansas.
A warm front will pass through Iowa from the south to the north during the day on Tuesday. This will put in place a warm and unstable air mass, far different from the conditions we’ve experienced this weekend. That same air mass is expected to quickly become capped, preventing any organized thunderstorm development. The best chance at this time for supercells and tornado development appears to be too our north, in Minnesota, where storms are expected to fire along the warm front.
As for us, storms may hold off until the early to late evening hours. As a shortwave kicks off the frontal boundary and pushes east across the state. While a tornado or two cannot be ruled out, especially for portions of northwest Iowa, the primary threats appear to be strong damaging winds and large hail. This threat could last well into the overnight hours across Iowa.
That sets the stage for another round of severe weather on Wednesday. You can read more about that by clicking here.